THIS WEEK’S DATA

It’s no secret that we’re heading into fall with the highest mortgage rates of the year, and the market is shifting. Fewer offers, rising supply, and climbing price cuts. Prices are always the last to move, but we’re starting to see changes.

In this week’s video Mike discusses why he doesn’t expect this market to result in a wave of foreclosures or even distressed sellers in the near future. Existing payments are affordable, equity is strong, and unemployment is low for most of the country. But we may see more motivated sellers, and possibly more short sales from people who bought in the last four years with small down payments. That creates opportunity for buyers.

The current week’s figures:

• Inventory: 1.14 million homes, up 4.4% from last year. The 8,000-unit weekly gain
  is the biggest for this week of the year in at least a decade.

• New listings: 78,000, down 1% from last year. Inventory is rising because sales
  are slow, not because listings are surging.

• Pending sales: 69,000 new contracts, down 10.5% from last year. September
  averaged 8.4% fewer sales than last year.

• Price per square foot: $213, down 1.3% from last year.

• Price cuts: 42.8% of active listings, higher than at this point in 2022.

An important takeaway from the current data is that while the slowdown is measurable nationally, there are always local markets behaving differently. We counted 7,800 immediate sales this week for the best properties in the desirable neighborhoods, priced right. The most expensive segments of the market still have more sales than a year ago, even as lower-priced segments are notably slower.

Nationally, purchase costs are up, sales pace is down, and the slowdown is broad. Home prices haven’t reacted notably yet, so it’s worth watching for those motivated sellers into 2027.

Source: Mike Simonsen